↓ Dec'26 | 4.57 3/4 | -1/4
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↑ Nov'25 | 10.33 1/2 | +1 3/4
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↑ Nov'26 | 10.75 3/4 | +1 1/2
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Night Trade as of 7:00 am CST. |
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Buy Signal - Minneapolis Wheat – Extended Day 14
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During the past 12 months - Corn had 7 Sell Signals lasting 5, 1, 4, 31, 9, 1, and 12 days.
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Meal had 2 Sell Signals lasting 6 and 8 days.
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During the past 12 months -
Minneapolis Wheat had 11 Buy Signals lasting 17, 5, 8, 2, 4, 5, 4, 20, 2, 11, and 2 days.
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Corn Sell Signal triggered
Soybeans likely tomorrow
The corn and soybean markets continue to reflect a bit of trader optimism for both a US government reopening and a trade deal with China occurring over the next week or two. Key US and China trade officials are meeting this week ahead of a scheduled meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi next week in Korea. President Trump has specifically mentioned soybean trade multiple times and this week said he’d like to see China buy at least the volume of soybeans they purchased from the US last year.
This optimism has helped support higher prices in the corn and soybean markets. As prices pushed above the green line 20-day moving average, they’ve built a small bit of upward momentum. This triggered the first day of a Corn Sell Signal overnight and will likely trigger a Soybean Sell Signal tomorrow.
While the current prices levels are not exciting, we do not want to ignore Sell Signals when they arrive, particularly when they have been less frequent than normal due to the ongoing US – China trade/tariff war. Make some small sales on this round of Sell Signals. Keep moving forward, one step at a time. If a trade deal comes out of next week’s meeting in Korea, perhaps there will be another selling opportunity at stronger price levels. But as we’ve seen recently, it only takes a negative headline to turn markets lower.
We recommend selling another 5% increment of your 2025 corn production on this Sell Signal, bringing our total recommendations for the current year’s production up to 45% sold. December 2026 corn is lagging (still trading at the 20-day) so we are not recommending additional 2026 sales currently. We plan to lean more heavily into both 2025 & 2026 sales during the upcoming period of South American weather worry, typically during the months of December – February.
Roach Ag Corn sales recommendations: 2024 – 100% sold 2025 – 45% sold
2026 – 5% sold
If soybean prices closer higher today, we should have a Soybean Sell Signal tomorrow. We’ll recommend a similar 5% increment sale if that occurs. It is OK to begin making some sales today if you don’t want to wait for our call.
Soybean meal moved into Sell Signal territory, but we only point this out for reference. We don't make selling recommendations for meal. Soy oil is on the threshold of moving into Sell Signal territory, demonstrating the relative strength the oilseeds markets have gained on renewed trade optimism. |
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Wheat markets continue to drag along at the bottom of the chart. Chicago and KC wheat prices increased just enough to exit Buy Signals last week but then turned sideways. Winter wheat continues to chop along in downtrend territory. Minneapolis wheat prices continue to slide to successive new lows and remain in a strong Buy Signal. Improved Export Inspections
US corn export inspections were higher week to week and remain well above average volumes for the marketing year. Soybean inspections finally showed some seasonal surge, with volume exceeding the high end of the trade range. However, soybean inspections are down more than -40% compared to last year. Soybean inspections are currently about -3% behind the pace needed to reach the current USDA forecast. The lack of Chinese buying continues to take a toll on the soybean market.
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Source: USDA, StoneX South American Crop Progress
In Brazil, soybean planting is off to a quick start, with farmers planting 24% of their intended crop by late last week. This is ahead of them being 18% planted last year and 16% planted on average according to AgRural. Planting in Mato Gross was furthest along at 44% planted, while Parana had planted 39% of their soybeans. Weather favored Mato Gross this past week as rain slowed planting in Parana. First crop corn in Brazil was 51% planted according to Ag Rural. This was ahead of the 48% average for first crop corn planting. Parana was nearly done at 90% planted.
In Argentina, corn was 30% planted as of late last week according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. Soybean planting is expected to get underway this week in Argentina. Fuel Buy Signal Other
Crude and heating oil prices remain near their recent lows again today. Heating oil has rebounded slightly and is in the process of exiting Buy Signal territory this morning. Our Fuel Buy Signal remains active today but could end today if heating oil prices continue higher. Check your local fuel prices to purchase fuel for your on-farm needs. Natural gas prices are no longer in Buy Signals following Monday’s spike higher.
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Cotton prices were turned away at the resistance of the 20-day moving average yesterday, keeping cotton in downtrend territory. Cotton was little changed overnight. Sugar prices are back in Buy Signal territory today, trading right in the middle of last week’s range overnight. Rice prices continue to slowly decline and slipped to fresh multi-year lows (2019) overnight.
Gold and silver are looking more volatile this week following slow steady climbs higher over the past two months. Gold closed at a fresh high yesterday only to sink -2% lower overnight. However, gold is still trading above $4,200/ounce, a threshold it just surpassed last week for the first time. Silver prices were down nearly -5% overnight, giving up nearly all of last week's gains. Outside Markets
Equities: Apple caught the eye of investors with an analyst upgrade, which propelled the stock market higher on Monday. Apple jumped to a record high after investment banking firm Loop Capital gave Apple a “buy” rating based on the prospects for the new iPhone. The momentum helped push the Dow Jones 500 points higher and the S&P 500 to 6,735. Nasdaq finished more than 300 points higher.
Alongside Apple, Alphabet churned higher after Bank of America raised its price target while Amazon closed higher despite a major crash for its Web Services. Additional earnings from the tech sector are pending this week and had the market in an upbeat mood on Monday. Meanwhile, the White House had encouraging words on reaching a trade deal with China and the likelihood of an end to the government shutdown in the coming days.
Dollar: The dollar was largely steady on Monday with the index remaining around 98.3. Japan appears set to name Sanae Takaichi its new prime minister in Tuesday’s parliamentary elections. The prospect of changes to Japan’s fiscal policy applied some pressure on the yen, which dipped modestly to 150.6 versus the dollar. The Bank of Japan meets on interest rates next Monday. The euro was largely steady around 1.165 as French politics appeared to be settling down. Germany’s producer price index for September was down 1.7% from last year following a sharp 2.2% decline in August; lower energy costs led the overall decline.
In peso news, Mexico’s slid to around 18.40 while Argentina was sharpy lower at nearly 1,480. Colombia's peso fell to 3,880 amid a new war of words with the Trump administration that resulted in Trump canceling aid to Colombia while Bogota recalled its ambassador from Washington on Monday.
Treasuries: Treasury yields were largely steady as government economic data remained unavailable and traders continue to expect the Federal Reserve will trim interest rates at the end of the month. The 10-year yield drifted slightly lower to 3.98% while the 2-year inched higher to 3.46%. On Friday, the Labor Department will release its delayed September consumer price index (CPI) despite the government shutdown.
Energies: Natural gas futures soared on Monday on signs winter was knocking on the door. November prices gapped higher at the open and topped $3.35 by the end of the day, the highest level in more than a week. Forecasts of more normal seasonal temperatures for the last week of, revising the outlook for what had been expected to be above-normal temps for much of the nation.
Crude futures remained flat due to continued concerns of an economic slowdown and hefty world oil supplies. December WTI was down less than a half-dollar and under $57 after slumping to a 3-month low a few cents below $56. November gasoline was lower at $1.83 but heating oil rose to $2.17 on the same chilly forecast that had boosted natural gas.
Metals: A lack of change in the outlook for interest rates and tariffs kept the gold market on its upward track Monday. December futures moved higher toward $4,380 but pulled up short of the record high set last week. Analysts anticipate market conditions will remain bullish for the time being but will be watching Friday’s CPI data for confirmation the Fed will go through with its expected rate cut next week.
December silver rose to $51.54 and made up some of Friday’s steep decline.
December copper bounced back to a few cents above $5 after somewhat encouraging numbers on the Chinese economy. China’s economy grew 4.8% in the third quarter compared to the same time last year. Reuters said it was the slowest quarterly pace in a year but in line with analyst expectations. Manufacturing and real-estate investment were both lower while overall industrial rose a better-than-expected 6.5% during the month of September. Unemployment was mostly steady.
Livestock: The cattle market put together a modest rally Monday following the sharp reversal at the end of last week. December cattle rose nearly $2 and were back above $243, although the range was within Friday’s and did not cover the losses from last Friday’s $6 plunge. November feeder cattle were still a bit wobbly but able to climb back nearly a dollar from Friday’s $9 plunge.
The cattle market had little new to go on in the wake of Trump’s statements that the administration had reached a deal to bring beef prices down at the supermarket, apparently through increased imports from Argentina, although still no official announcements. Lean hogs, meanwhile, were little changed Monday and still looking for traction following last week’s selloff. December hogs slipped to nearly $82 as consumer demand this fall remains uncertain.
The beef market waited Monday for some details on President Trump’s hints the United States will boost imports from Argentina. President Javier Milei likely owes Trump for the recent $40 billion aid package to prop up the peso. Milei faces critical midterm elections next Sunday and could likely benefit from a deal to export more beef to the United States.
Analysts said Monday the impact of increased imports on U.S. prices would likely be modest, and noted Argentina is also increasingly competitive in the world export market. Meanwhile, the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association’s response was muted; the association did not denounce the possible increase in beef imports and reiterated that beef prices properly reflect their production costs.
The USDA released an update to its playbook for countering the New World screwworm. The agency said it was releasing an average of 100 million sterile flies per week in Mexico. Completion of a new production facility in Texas early next year will increase capacity to 300 million per week. The playbook can be found HERE.
Live Cattle: The slaughter began the week at a modest 95,000 compared to 106,000 last Monday. The new grading report for the week ending Oct. 11 included 17.65 million head, of which 72.7% was choice, 12.7% select and 11.4% prime. Monday’s early choice cutout rose a couple of dollars to nearly $369.
Feeder Cattle: Demand at the Oklahoma City auction was moderate on Monday following the major decline for the futures market at the end of last week. Steer prices were about $10 lower. Calf prices were steady except for the 400-450-pound range, which were $10-$20 higher. Corn prices were still around $4.20 on Monday while the CME index stood above $376 late last week.
Lean Hogs: Analysts see a potential seasonal lull in pork demand weighing on cash prices. Monday’s demand was considered good, but cash prices sagged 40 cents nationwide to $89.74 but were above $90 in Iowa/Minnesota and in the Western Corn Belt. The week’s slaughter began at 492,000 compared to 485,000 last week. |
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Export Inspections Soybean export inspections came in better-than-expected last week and were even higher than corn, although they remain well behind last year’s pace.
Soybean inspections topped 1 million metric tons (MT) for the second consecutive week, as did corn inspections. Wheat inspections were modestly higher while sorghum inspections fell sharply to around 2,000 MT, the USDA said Monday.
Inspections of bean cargoes during the week ending Oct. 16 totaled 1,474,354 million metric tons (MT), which beat analyst projections and also topped the previous week’s total of 1,017,172 MT. At the same time, they were about half the tally from a year ago. Inspections for the marketing year reached 5,537,802 MT compared to the running total of 8,013,348 MT a year ago.
While China had no cargoes inspected, the soybean market was crowded with activity in virtually every inspection point. Inspections varied from 143,998 MT for Mexico in the Interior to more than 41,000 MT inspected at Toledo for Turkey and Greece. Bangladesh had 116,128 MT inspected on the Gulf Coast and another 59,283 on Puget Sound. Corn inspections rose to 1,317,724 MT from 1,210,036 the prior week, in line with projections and pushing the total for the marketing year, which began Sept. 1, above 9 million MT. Mexico’s corn tally included 164,652 MT on the Gulf Coast and 260,355 MT in the Interior. Japan and South Korea combined for 235,632 MT in the Pacific Northwest.
Colombia had 188,971 MT of corn inspected on the Gulf Coast along with 41,016 MT of wheat; Colombia has been a major customer for U.S. corn and other agricultural commodities. Inspections for Colombia during the week ending Oct. 4 totaled 246,396 MT, including more than 202,000 MT of corn.
U.S. relations with Colombia, however, continued to spiral downward Monday as President Trump and Colombian President Gustavo Petro trades increasingly hostile words over U.S. attacks on alleged drug-running boats in the Caribbean and Colombia’s alleged role in the international drug trade. As of Monday, Trump had cut U.S. aid to Colombia and announced a new batch of tariffs while Colombia recalled its ambassador.
Meanwhile, wheat inspections were higher at 480,614 MT from 447,531 MT, toward the low end of expectations. The majority of the activity was in Texas and on the Mississippi River. Nigeria was the leading destination at 97,809 MT followed by Thailand, South Korea and Bangladesh at more than 60,000 MT each. |
Yield Reports Brown County, MN 900 acres average 246 BPA, APH 205, Best Corn Crop Ever
Norman County, MN Corn: First 3 fields avg 220 BPA (200 APH) Soybeans: 1500 acres = 45 BPA (49 APH) disappointed, Large local elevator reports area yields running 40-42 BPA (47 APH)
Tracy, MN (Lyon/Redwood Co) 390 acres of corn: 265 BPA (222 APH), hog manure, good growing season Crookston, MN Corn: 1500 ac doing 200 BPA, 175 APH Mankato, MN Corn doing 225 BPA over 6 fields. 800 acres. 207 is average last few good years Mercer County, OH
Corn: 65 acres, average 264 bu/ac, better ground, record for this field. Champaign County, IL Corn: Whole farm averaged a better than expected 250 bu/acre versus a sub-par 213 bu/acre last year. Big rains in July and the unusually cold weather during much of August resulted in heavyweight corn, despite minimal rains received during August-September-FH October. Cerro Gordo County, IA
212 BPA 220 APH Washington County, IA
Whole farm north of 250 bpa and better corn yet to come. Very happy as normally market using 220 Kindred, ND South of Fargo, 900 acres beans: farm avg = 48 BPA (44 APH). Not subject to freeze and wet yield reductions in nearby areas.
Enderlin, ND 50 miles SW of Fargo. Over 4000 acres beans: farm avg 36 BPA (48-50 APH) wet, freeze, worst crop in 20 years. Forman, ND (SW corner) Soybeans: acres avg: 49.8 BPA (43 APH), dodged the freeze/frost. Milbank, SD (NE near MN border) Soybeans: 850 acres: 49.5 BPA (44 APH)
quite pleased as extreme variability in area – too wet. Dry August finish helped in his case. |
USDA Flash Sales
From this morning's USDA daily exports sales notice |
US – Monday's observed precipitation |
European model – US 7-day precipitation forecast |
US 15-day precipitation forecast relative to normal |
Brazil 15-day precipitation forecast relative to normal |
Argentina 15-day precipitation forecast relative to normal |
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ABOUT US
Roach Ag. Marketing is a full service advisory firm founded in Perry, Iowa back in 1978 to help farmers do a better job of marketing their crops and livestock. Learn more...
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Roach Ag Marketing
568 E Yamato Rd
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Boca Raton, FL 33431
Telephone: 800.622.7628
FAX: 561-994-9240
E-mail: dailygrainplan@roachag.com |
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