↓ Sep '25 | 4.04 1/2 |-1 1/2
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↓ Dec'25 | 4.20 1/4 |-1 3/4
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↑ Aug'25 | 10.38 1/4 |+8 1/2
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↓ Sep' 25 | 5.48 3/4 | -1/4
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Night Trade as of 7:00 am CST. |
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Over the past 20 years Roach Ag has organized agriculturally focused travel in China, Brazil, Italy, Cuba, Ireland, Panama, Hawaii, Alaska and cruises to nearly all the islands of the Caribbean. All the places we’ve visited were enjoyable and we love learning about their agriculture. Travelers tell us that meeting and traveling with other farmers has been a real highlight of our trips.
We invite you to travel with us to another one of our bucket list places, New Zealand, from November 12 to 26, 2025. We start in Christchurch and finish in Auckland. In between we will see the beauty and agriculture of New Zealand. Click here for details.
We are also planning to return to Brazil and Argentina January 10 to 24, 2026. We will start in São Paulo and then connect to Curitiba to explore the area where commercial agricultural got its start in Brazil. The second part of our trip takes us to Argentina where commercial agriculture has flourished for over 100 years. Click here for details.
For more information call or email Audrey Lerner at 954-295-4800 |
Buy Signals - Corn – Extended Day 19
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Soybeans – Day 4
- Chicago Wheat – Day 4
- Kansas City Wheat – Day 4
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Minneapolis Wheat – Day 3
- Meal – Extended Day 12
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During the past 12 months -
Corn had 8 Buy Signals lasting 4, 20, 11, 5, 2, 7, 1, and 12 days.
- Soybeans had 8 Buy Signals lasting 31, 17, 11, 6, 2, 12, 1, and 4 days.
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Chicago Wheat had 10 Buy Signals lasting 29, 4, 8, 3, 5, 6, 8, 2, 9, and 1 days.
- KC Wheat had 9 Buy Signals lasting 28, 3, 6, 17, 5, 8, 6, 16, and 1 days.
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Minneapolis Wheat had Buy Signals lasting 18, 3, 4, 4, 17, 5, 8, 2, 4, and 5 days.
- Meal had 10 Buy Signals lasting 28, 8, 31, 1, 3, 2, 15, 9, 7, and 2 days.
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NOTE: There will not be a Daily Grain Plan published Thursday or Friday of this week, as Todd Roach and Jacob Kleinberg are both enjoying much needed vacations. We hope you have a wonderful Independence Day weekend with family and friends. We will return to our normal email schedule on Monday July 7. |
Markets rebound off post-report lows
Corn, soybean, and wheat markets all struggled early in Tuesday’s session after an unremarkable USDA report and steady or improving crop conditions. Chicago Wheat then led the markets higher mid-day, closing up 10 ¾ cents. Soybeans ended the day unchanged. Corn traded down to the important psychological resistance at 4.00, where it found support. While corn failed to finish the day in the green, futures did rally to within just a few cents of the day's high.
Soybeans are following through to the upside in overnight markets. September soybeans are up another 6 cents. Corn futures are just slightly lower, and wheat futures are just slightly higher. It was encouraging to see the grains supported yesterday, when all of the market fundamentals seem bearish. Weather models even took some of the abnormally high temperatures out of the 6–10-day forecasts.
The combination of low grain prices and the weakest dollar we’ve seen in years should begin to generate some additional demand. Pay close attention to your basis levels over the next month and try to take advantage of stronger bids. One of our advisors can walk you through how to manage basis contracts if you’ve never utilized them. |
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One Big Beautiful Bill Passes Senate, will face Third Big Beautiful Vote in House
The Senate just barely passed the spending on Tuesday, after several days of procedural drama and negotiations with skeptical members of the GOP. The bill will now go back to the House, where many in the conservative House Freedom Caucus are voicing their dissatisfaction with the senate’s version of the bill. The President is encouraging Congress to get the bill to his desk before the July 4th holiday. Polymarket gives the bill about a 70% chance of passing before July 5th, so the consensus seems to believe that the House Freedom Caucus members will come around.
The bill includes an extension of the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit to the end of 2031. The senate’s version of the bill also eases up on some of the earlier version’s tax penalties to wind and solar producers that use Chinese components. There is also a provision that increases reference prices in federal crop insurance products. |
Outside Markets
Equities: Stocks were mixed on Tuesday as investors re-positioned their portfolios for the beginning of the new month and new fiscal quarter. The Dow Jones jumped 400 points, but Nasdaq fell more than 16 points and the S&P 500 drifted below 6,210 points. Technology stocks suffered as investors rotated into other sectors, particularly healthcare. Passage of the spending bill by the Senate seemed to have minimal impact on stocks, and investors were reportedly hopeful that some kind of trade deals will be reached soon enough to again delay new tariffs slated to take effect next week.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a sharp increase in job openings in May to nearly 7.77 million, the highest number since last November and above expectations of 7.30 million. At the same time, manufacturing declined for the fourth consecutive month in June, albeit at a slower pace than in previous months, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI report released Tuesday.
U.S. Dollar: The dollar continued to weaken Tuesday as traders remained cautious about trade news but looked forward to the increasing likelihood that interest rates will come down this year, possibly sooner than expected. The market will be glued to Thursday’s jobs report for further indications the economy is cooling enough for the Fed to go ahead with a rate cut.
The Dollar Index dropped to a 12-month low of 96.0 before a modest late rebound. The dollar also slumped to 143.7 against the yen after Trump potentially threw trade talks between the United State and Japan off the rail by threatening new tariffs over Japan’s perceived reluctance to buy more U.S. rice. The euro remained around a 4-year high against the dollar at 1.178. Inflation in Europe last month rose slightly to 2.0% over June 2024, a slight increase from 1.9% and in line with expectations and with the European Central Bank’s target. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, was unchanged from May at a tame 2.3%.
Treasuries: Treasury yields were higher Tuesday as the new spending bill moved closer to final passage through Congress and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell continued to appear favorable to lower interest rates. The 10-year yield jumped as high as 4.27% before leveling off at around 4.25%. The 2-year surged to 3.78%.
Powell told an audience in Europe Tuesday that interest rates likely would be lower already if not for the economic uncertainty over President Trump’s tariff policy. “In effect we went on hold when we saw the size of the tariffs and essentially all inflation forecasts for the United States went up materially as a consequence of the tariffs,” Powell said at a European Central Bank conference. Powell added the Fed would continue to base its policy decisions on current economic data and not target a specific time to make cuts.
Energies: Crude remained relatively steady on Tuesday as traders awaited the weekly inventory numbers and next week’s OPEC+ meeting. August WTI finished a half-dollar higher at around $65.65 but was turned back on an earlier move to $66 and remained in the sideways pattern in place since June 24. OPEC+ is widely expected to increase production again in a move to maintain market share when they meet July 6.
The consensus in the market is output quotas will be raised 411,000 barrels per day beginning next month. Wednesday’s EIA inventory report is projected to include another decrease in crude and diesel supplies and a slight increase in gasoline stocks ahead of the July 4 weekend. Supplies of all three have been running below seasonal averages. Analysts also expect the EIA to show another increase in natural-gas storage injections on Thursday.
Metals: Gold rallied for a second day Tuesday as Congress advanced a spending bill predicted to inflate the U.S. deficit by around $3 trillion. The increased safe-haven appeal of gold had August futures at the $3,350 threshold. Gold traders will be closely watching Thursday’s U.S. jobs reports for hints that interest rate cuts are more or less likely in the coming months. July silver was also higher and finished the day slightly above $36 while September copper closed just shy of $5.10 as tariff threats keep supplies tight at key distribution centers.
Livestock: News that the USDA had a plan to resume cattle imports from Mexico drove cattle futures sharply lower on Tuesday. Live and feeder cattle fell a few dollars while lean hogs remained under technical pressure and dropped a dollar or so. August live cattle were more than $3 lower and below $211 while August feeder cattle were knocked around $4.60 lower to under $306.
Analysts said the lengthy timeline for reopening the border may have prevented a larger rout. Meanwhile, the hog market continued its steady decline with July down another dollar to $109 and August was moderately lower at slightly under $107.
The USDA’s phased resumption of Mexican cattle imports will begin early next week. The department said Douglas, Arizona will be the first border crossing to reopen on July 7 with Columbus, N.M. on July 14 and Santa Teresa, N.M. on July 21. The schedule has Del Rio, Texas reopening August 18 and Laredo on Sept. 15. Officials said the northward spread of New World screwworm (NWS) appears to have come to a halt and there has been no “noticeable increase” in NWS cases inside Mexico.
The reopening will be closely monitored and, for now, will be limited to cattle born and raised in the states of Sonora and Chihuahua, or cattle that are treated under New World screwworm (NWS) protocols at the border. The reopening of the two Texas ports will first require the states of Nuevo Leon and Coahuila to adopt the same NWS protocols required in Sonora and Chihuahua.
Live Cattle: The cash market remained quiet despite the news about the border and the short trading week. Cash prices were estimated at $233 while the boxed beef index rose to nearly $392 on the final day of June. The grading report for the week ending June 21 showed nearly 73% of the 11.2 million rated as choice, 12.4% select and 11.7% prime.
Feeder Cattle: The CME index began the week at $315. Rain was limited to Texas on Tuesday, but the northern Plains and upper Midwest may see some showers late in the week. The Ozark auction in West Plain, Missouri saw good demand on moderate supply with yearlings slightly higher in price. The auction said about half of the cattle supply was below 600 pounds, but one offering of 129 head averaged nearly 845 pounds.
Lean Hogs: Cash prices softened Tuesday but remained above $111. The slaughter after two days was 947,000 compared to 936,000 last Tuesday. The cutout was down another $3 late Tuesday at $112.30, about $5 under the 5-day average. Belly and butt primals lost well over $8 while hams were up a dollar and above $100. |
South America Expectations of record safrinha corn yields led to increases in the estimates for Brazil’s corn crop this week.
Generous late-season rainfall, unusual for this time of year, may have slowed the harvest, but it should be worth the wait as analysts see the potential for higher-than-usual yields in multiple states.
“Yields remain positive in spite of occasional frosts in areas of Parana, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Sao Paulo at the beginning of last week,” said crop analyst Dr. Michael Cordonnier. “The late rains have enabled good yields even from the corn that was planted after the ideal planting window closed at the end of February.”
Cordonnier this week added 2 million metric tons (MT) to his production forecast, raising it to 132 million MT and saw the possibility of another increase down the road. AgRural also raised its projection to 130.6 million MT based on a record 103.4 million MT safrinha crop. The USDA earlier this week pegged Brazil’s crop at 126 million MT, at the low end of the wide range of estimates for a crop showing a late burst of bounty.
“Multiple Brazilian states are expecting record safrinha corn yields due to the continuation of the summer rains up until the present time,” Cordonnier said. “This is very unusual for central Brazil which is normally in the grip of the annual dry season at this point.”
Cordonnier’s projection for Argentina’s corn crop was maintained at 50 million MT as the harvest passed the halfway point with an assist from the cooperative weather pattern. The harvest in Argentina’s major corn areas was nearly completed although excessive moisture in the Buenos Aires had stalled the harvest of late-planted corn.
Argentina’s soybean production was increased modestly to 50 million MT, the same volume as corn, as the harvest neared completion. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange made no changes to its forecast of 50.3 million MT. The harvest for corn and beans was wrapping up in time for Argentina’s export tax to be increased effective July 1. The soybean tax increased from 26% to 33% while the tax on corn and wheat went from 9.5% to 12%.
“If the new tax rates sound familiar, it is because they are now back to what they were when (President Javier) Milei took office,” Cordonnier said. “The Milei administration is backtracking on their promise to reduce export taxes even though they keep insisting that the ultimate goal is to eliminate export taxes altogether.” |
Source: Soybean & Corn Advisor, Inc. |
USDA Crush Reports The May soybean crush was higher than the previous month and in line with analyst expectations, according to USDA statistics released Tuesday. The total of 204 million bushels (mbu) crushed in May exceeded the 202 mbu processed in April and the nearly 192 mbu in May 2024. The output was also slightly less than the 204.7 mbu that had been predicted. The crush produced 2.42 billion pounds of crude soybean oil, up 1% from April and 7% higher than a year ago. The once-refined oil production for May was 10% higher than April and 7% above the previous year. Total corn consumed for alcohol and other uses was 501 million bushels in May, up +6% from May, but down -2% from last year. May usage broke down to 91.9% for alcohol and 8.1% for other uses. |
Mississippi River and other global waterways Barge rates on the Mississippi River during late June were mixed with most locations slightly lower and more noticeable increases in St. Louis and Twin Cities.
The St. Louis average rose to 334.38 during the week ending June 24 from 313.93 the prior week. Twin Cities jumped to 556.00 from 534.00. Elsewhere, rates were flatter, including a 1-point dip at Cairo-Memphis to 281.25. The Lower Ohio was down a couple of points at 323.75 while the Lower Illinois fell to 418.44 from 427.86.
The USDA calculates its weekly barge-rate estimates using a formula based on benchmark tariffs charged at individual locations along the river. Barge operators base their charges on percentages of the individual benchmark, which also reflect a range of variables and other expenses and are then converted to dollars per ton and then divided by 100.
Grain volumes carried by barge during the week ending June 21 were slightly higher than the previous week at 759,700 tons; however, the total was a whopping 81% above the same week last year. There were 485 barges that traveled downriver during the week, 14 fewer than the previous week, and 531 unloaded at New Orleans.
River levels continued to run high in many locations with a steep decline predicted in July. The level at St. Louis was projected to peak above +19 late this week and then skid down to +12 by mid-July. Memphis was looking ahead to a rebound to nearly +15 next week before falling to +3 by the end of July. The level at Dubuque was projected to come close to flood stage at +16 over the weekend, while Alton leveled off this week at +17.
Elsewhere, Ukraine said it would ask the European Union to sanction companies in Bangladesh for allegedly importing wheat cargoes from Russia that allegedly included volumes of grain stolen from occupied Ukrainian territories.
Reuters said the Ukrainians this year requested Bangladesh reject 150,000 metric tons of grains shipped from the Russian port of Kavkaz; Kyiv contends the grain was mixed with Russian wheat to hide its origin. Bangladesh has refused to respond to the demand, officials told Reuters, and Russia denies any wrongdoing on the grounds the territories it occupies are part of Russia. |
Mississippi River and other global waterways
Barge rates on the Mississippi River during late June were mixed with most locations slightly lower and more noticeable increases in St. Louis and Twin Cities.
The St. Louis average rose to 334.38 during the week ending June 24 from 313.93 the prior week. Twin Cities jumped to 556.00 from 534.00. Elsewhere, rates were flatter, including a 1-point dip at Cairo-Memphis to 281.25. The Lower Ohio was down a couple of points at 323.75 while the Lower Illinois fell to 418.44 from 427.86.
The USDA calculates its weekly barge-rate estimates using a formula based on benchmark tariffs charged at individual locations along the river. Barge operators base their charges on percentages of the individual benchmark, which also reflect a range of variables and other expenses and are then converted to dollars per ton and then divided by 100.
Grain volumes carried by barge during the week ending June 21 were slightly higher than the previous week at 759,700 tons; however, the total was a whopping 81% above the same week last year. There were 485 barges that traveled downriver during the week, 14 fewer than the previous week, and 531 unloaded at New Orleans.
River levels continued to run high in many locations with a steep decline predicted in July. The level at St. Louis was projected to peak above +19 late this week and then skid down to +12 by mid-July. Memphis was looking ahead to a rebound to nearly +15 next week before falling to +3 by the end of July. The level at Dubuque was projected to come close to flood stage at +16 over the weekend, while Alton leveled off this week at +17.
Elsewhere, Ukraine said it would ask the European Union to sanction companies in Bangladesh for allegedly importing wheat cargoes from Russia that allegedly included volumes of grain stolen from occupied Ukrainian territories.
Reuters said the Ukrainians this year requested Bangladesh reject 150,000 metric tons of grains shipped from the Russian port of Kavkaz; Kyiv contends the grain was mixed with Russian wheat to hide its origin. Bangladesh has refused to respond to the demand, officials told Reuters, and Russia denies any wrongdoing on the grounds the territories it occupies are part of Russia. |
Mississippi River at Memphis |
Ohio River at Cairo, Illinois |
Source: Army Corp of Engineers, NWS, NOAA |
Panama Canal – Lake Gatun |
Source: Panama Canal Authority |
USDA Flash Sales From this morning's USDA daily exports sales notice |
US – Tuesday's observed precipitation |
European model – US 7-day precipitation forecast |
US 15-day precipitation forecast relative to normal |
Brazil 15-day precipitation forecast relative to normal |
Argentina 15-day precipitation forecast relative to normal |
We encourage your questions, comments, and suggestions. Simply reply to this email. |
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ABOUT US
Roach Ag. Marketing is a full service advisory firm founded in Perry, Iowa back in 1978 to help farmers do a better job of marketing their crops and livestock. Learn more...
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Roach Ag Marketing
568 E Yamato Rd
Ste 200
Boca Raton, FL 33431
Telephone: 800.622.7628
FAX: 561-994-9240
E-mail: dailygrainplan@roachag.com |
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