↓ Dec'25 | 4.02 1/4 | -4 1/4
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↓ Sep'25 | 10.19 1/4 | -1 1/2
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↓ Nov'25 | 10.39 3/4 | -1 1/2
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↓ Sep'25 | 4.98 1/4 | -4 1/2
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↓ Dec'25 | 5.20 1/2 | -4 1/2
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Night Trade as of 7:00 am CST. |
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On TV On Friday, John Roach will appear on Market to Market, the weekly journal on rural America. View this award-winning show on Iowa PBS. |
Travel with other farmers
This week is the deadline for our trip to Brazil and Argentina January 10-24, 2026. CLICK HERE for details. For more information call Audrey Lerner at 561-922-7983. We are in day 4 of a Bean Sell Signal
On this bean Sell Signal we recommend selling a 10% increment of your expected 2025 soybean production. Our plan is to wait for South American weather concerns (Dec, Jan, Feb) for the bulk of unsold beans, but we want to make a small sale on this market peak. |
Sell Signals - Soybeans- Day 4
- Meal - Day 5
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Buy Signals - Chicago Wheat - Extended Day 14
- Kansas City Wheat -Day 3
- Minneapolis Wheat -Day 1
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During the past 12 months - Soybeans had 8 Sell Signals lasting 4, 7, 1, 9, 1, 11, 1, and 3 days.
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Meal had 3 Sell Signals lasting 4, 2, and 6 days.
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During the past 12 months Chicago Wheat had 11 Buy Signals lasting 29, 4, 8, 3, 5, 6, 8, 2, 9, 1, and 11 days. KC Wheat had 9 Buy Signals lasting 6, 17, 5, 8, 6, 16, 1, 15, and 2 days. Minneapolis Wheat had 9 Buy Signals lasting 4, 17, 5, 8, 2, 4, 5, 4, and 20 days.
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Have you made bean sales?
Bean prices slipped during the day’s trade yesterday but rallied overnight. With beans solidly in an uptrend, technically oriented traders, including spec funds, are likely putting in buy orders. On the other side farmers sold the bean rally. We think the upside is limited but the weather forecast is worrisome, and mother nature is still in control of bean yields. If bean prices move up another notch, we are willing to lean further into sales. New Idea
During a Sell Signal, the green light is always on to sell any crop year that makes financial sense to your operation. This morning, November 2026 beans are trading at $10.72. That is a new recent high and you have not had a price over $11.00 since last September. What is wrong with putting in a few scale up orders for next year? We hope they are the worst sales you make. Roach Ag Soybean sales recommendations: 2024 – 100% sold 2025 – 40% sold 2026 – Consider scale up orders Yesterday the December corn took a hard shot at the green line 20-day moving average and stopped dead in its tracks. Trend traders were willing to sell figuring the fundamentals will not allow a trend change at this time. The traders on the short side since last winter have lots of money and had little to fear yesterday. You should hope your favorite football team has a defense so strong. We’ll see (hope hope) if the bulls have any trick plays we don’t know about to get past the green line and trigger spec fund buying. |
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The best thing we can say about wheat is prices are holding, just barely, above last week’s lows. Peace in Ukraine should normalize trade from Russian and Ukraine increasing competition. We pray for peace and believe the market has already adjusted to that outcome. We remember how Russia’s invasion and the actual beginning of war marked the peak in wheat prices in early March 2022. Traders adjusted prices long before troops crossed the border. It’s uncanny how that works. We call it “buy the rumor, sell the fact.”
The South Dakota corn yield tour estimate came in at 174.18 bu. per acre, a 11.3% increase from the 156.5 bu. per acre scouts found on the 2024 tour. In Ohio, the yield came in at 185.7 bu. per acre, which beat last year by 1.3%. It is also above the three-year average of 180.5 bu. per acre. The corn yield is also above the three-year average of 144. bu. per acre. Bean pod counts were higher than last year in both states.
Pro Farmer Crop Tour Day 1 results Ohio Corn yield: 185.69 bpa
(2024: 183.29) (2023: 183.94)
Soybean 3x3 pod count: 1,287.28 (2024: 1,229.93) (2023: 1,252.93) South Dakota Corn yield: 174.18 bpa (2024: 156.51) (2023: 157.42) Soybean 3x3 pod count: 1,188.45 (2024: 1,025.89)
(2023: 1,013.00)
Click here for details and to follow the Pro Farmer Crop Tour. |
Other Fuel Buy Signal
Crude oil, heating oil, and natural gas all remain in Buy Signals today. We have an active Fuel Buy Signal. Take advantage of these lower prices to cover your on-farm fuel needs. It is time to top off fuel stores.
Cotton and rice are all treading water just above the green line 20-day moving average this morning, but sugar has slipped below the green line. Cotton and rice could trigger a Sell Signal if they can put together a couple of days of higher prices. |
Free Marketing Plan
If you are a Daily Grain Plan subscriber, we want to make sure you feel supported. If you feel that you are at a crossroads and aren’t sure how to manage your unsold inventory, you are always welcome to call and speak with our team.
CLICK HERE if you’d like to schedule a call with someone that can help develop a marketing plan for you free of charge. |
Outside Markets
Equities: Stocks moved modestly on Monday with the major news coming later in the week. Monday’s leisurely pace on Wall Street led to the Dow Jones slipping some 30 points with the S&P 500 nearly steady at around 6,450. Nasdaq gained a few points despite Meta and Microsoft finishing lower.
Fed watchers are preparing for Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech Thursday at the Fed’s economic symposium in Jackson Hole, which could provide some fresh clues as to whether interest rates will be lowered as expected next month. Trump-appointed Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman continues to call for an immediate rate cut in September and urged the Fed to be more pro-active in setting rates to prevent erosion in the labor market.
Dollar: On Monday, the Dollar Index climbed early and spent much of the day bumping up against 98.1. The euro sagged throughout the day to 1.166 as U.S. tariffs added headwinds to the Euro Zone economies. The dollar rose to 147.7 against the yen after the Bank of Japan stuck to its cautious approach on interest rates. Elsewhere, China’s yuan was slightly lower and below 7.19 after the People’s Bank indicated it would not be aggressively easing its interest rates despite some sputtering in the overall economy.
Treasuries: Treasury yields were a bit higher on Monday as the bond market focused not only on Powell’s speech on Thursday but on Wednesday’s release of the July policy meeting minutes. Monday’s trading had the 10-year yield above 4.33% and the 2-year to nearly 3.77%.
Sentiment in the housing industry is lower this month. The National Association of Home Builders index declined from a 33 in July to 32 this month. Sales expectations remained steady, but prices continue to edge lower while the need for sales incentives increased to 66% in August. At the same time, housing starts in Canada during July were up 3.7% from June and above expectations at 294,085.
Energies: Oil prices were cautiously lower on Monday as the latest U.S. effort to broker a peace deal in Ukraine failed to produce any meaningful progress. September WTI expanded its foothold above $63 by less than a dollar while gasoline and diesel remained rangebound.
Traders see a settlement leading to an easing of sanctions on Russian oil exports, which would likely lead to more oil and natural gas on the market. On the other hand, the United States could also tighten sanctions if there is no deal. Meanwhile, natural gas prices remained weighed down by ample supply with September once again unable to break above $3.00.
Google is teaming up with Kairos Power on a new nuclear power plant being developed in Tennessee and will begin operations in 2030. The 50-megawatt plant has the capacity to supply electricity to 36,000 homes and will be used to power two Google data centers operating on the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) grid. The TVA has also agreed to purchase electricity generated by the plant, although the price was not revealed.
Metals: The gold market was also in a holding pattern Monday while awaiting the Fed conference later in the week. December gold was most active, but little changed at around $3,380 after an outside trading day. September silver continued to stick around $38 and copper remained slightly under $4.50.
Livestock: Cattle futures were higher on Monday with feeder cattle showing the most energy. October live cattle moved less than a dollar higher and above $231, a bit more than a dollar short of the recent 12-month high. A $5 gain in the boxed beef index last Friday likely encouraged buyers to come out on Monday. October feeder cattle did make it to a 12-month high after gaining more than $3 to above $351. The USDA’s late-Friday announcement on the New World screwworm did not include any date for reopening the border to Mexican cattle.
October hogs made a slight gain, enough to remain above $90 and stick to the high end of Friday’s range. Managed money traders last week unloaded more than 1,800 longs in live-cattle and 2,500 shorts. Traders added more than 4,000 longs in the hog market and 2,000 shorts.
The Cattle on Feed (COF) report will be released Friday after the close. The USDA said in its monthly Livestock Outlook on Monday that cattle prices will remain high while beef imports and exports have been revised lower. Pork exports have held up, but the USDA lowered its pork production export to 277 billion pounds. Hog prices in Q3 are pegged 17% higher than 2024. In addition, broiler production is expected to increase, holding down prices.
Live Cattle: Monday’s late cutout was solidly higher on only 80 loads. Choice rose more than $3 to above $404 while select jumped $6.35 to $372. Choice ribs rose above $591. Cash markets are expected to remain quiet ahead of the COF. Still no sign that beef demand is deteriorating due to higher prices. CattleFax noted the USDA’s average retail price for beef in July was nearly $9 per pound, up 27% from June, and is more than 9% higher than a year ago. Last week’s beef grading was 72.7% choice, 12.6% select and 11.5% prime out of 13.8 million head.
Feeder Cattle: The Oklahoma City auction showed prices a few dollars higher, although calf prices were reportedly up as much as $25. Longer grazing periods had 75% of the cattle at the auction weighing more than 600 pounds. Overall dry weather has been pressuring rangeland in the southern Plains with no tropical weather systems threatening the Gulf Coast at present. Corn opened the week with a precarious hold on $3.80. The CME index sagged to $342 at the end of last week.
Lean Hogs: Cash prices averaged $107.70 Monday with only the Western Corn Belt reporting. Monday’s slaughter was estimated at 481,000 compared to 482,000 a week earlier. The late cutout was nearly steady at $116.36 and less than a dollar above the 5-day average.
There were plenty of grateful compliments posted in response to the USDA’s battle plan to combat the New World Screwworm released late last week. The five-point plan didn’t include any surprises but among the statements of praise was one from the Texas corn growers pointing out the close linkage between its members and the state’s cattle industry. “Livestock consume well over 90% of Texas-grown corn, making cattle a staple market for corn farmers, many of whom include both corn and cattle in their operations,” said the Texas Corn Producers Association.
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US Crop Progress Corn showed some minor wear and tear as it entered mid-August but was otherwise holding up well and should make a good showing for the closely watched Pro Farmer Crop Tour. As the scouting parties hit the back roads, they were anxious to see if the glitzy crop ratings from the USDA were as advertised. Monday’s Crop Progress report indicated corn, and soybeans were still going strong. “The market now looks ahead to this week’s crop tour for any evidence it’s larger than what is already priced in,” explained StoneX Chief Commodities Economist Arlan Suderman.
The Crop Progress report for the week ending August 17 had corn conditions at 71% good to excellent, a dip of 1 percentage point from the prior week and better than the 67% at this time last year. The poor-to-very-poor ratings inched up from 7% to 8% with 21% rated fair, unchanged from the week before. Conditions were little changed as silking reached 97%, a point behind the 5-year average, and 72% were in the dough stage.
Most individual states were faring well with Iowa at 86% good to excellent and Illinois at 63%. Monday’s tour stops featured South Dakota at 77% good to excellent and Ohio at 55%.
Soybean conditions were unchanged from last week at 68% good to excellent with pod-setting jumping from 71% to 82% and even with the 5-year average.
Suderman told Roach Ag it was unlikely Monday’s report, or the crop tour, would shed much additional light on soybean production this year even after the USDA reduced its anticipated soybean acreage last week; Brazil’s acreage estimates were increased at the same time. “It’s simply too early for that,” he said. “The crop tour is probably going to be more focused on pod counts rather than yields.” There was also good news from the cotton fields where good-to-excellent ratings moved up 2 percentage points from the previous week to 65% with 73% setting bolls.
Meanwhile, spring wheat was slightly improved at 50% good to excellent while the harvest jumped to 26% from 16% the previous week.
The winter wheat harvest reached 94%, about even with the average, although Montana lagged behind at 65%. While 65% was a solid increase from 40% a week earlier, the Montana harvest was still behind the 5-year average of 76%.
Corn 97% silking. Last week 94%. Avg 98% 72% dough. Last week 58%. Avg 73% 27% dented. Last week 14%. Avg 26% 3% mature. Avg 3%
71% good to excellent. Last week 72%. Avg 62% 8% poor to very poor. Last week 7%
Soybeans 95% blooming. Last week 91%. Avg 95%
82% setting pods. Last week 71%. Avg 82% 68% good to excellent. Last week 68%. Avg 62%
8% poor to very poor. Last week 7% Winter Wheat
94% harvested. Last week 90%. Avg 95% Spring Wheat
36% harvested. Last week 16%. Avg 36% 50% good to excellent. Last week 49%. Avg 61%
18% poor to very poor. Last week 18% Cotton
97% squaring. Last week 93%. Avg 98% 73% setting bolls. Last week 65%. Avg 80%
13% bolls opening. Last week 8%. Avg 16% 55% good to excellent. Last week 53%
14% poor to very poor. Last week 18% Rice
92% headed. Last week 85%. Avg 89% 17% harvested. Avg 11%. Avg 15%
75% good to excellent. Last week 76% 3% poor to very poor. Last week 3%
Corn |
Export Inspections
Export inspections slowed last week with corn falling below analyst expectations while wheat and soybeans came in near the low end of predictions.
While total corn inspections were lower than expected during the week ending August 14, they remained slightly above 1 million metric tons (MT). The total raised inspections for the year above 64 million MT and comfortably ahead of last year’s running total of 50,160,735 MT. In addition, the USDA Monday reported the sale of 124,000 MT of 2025-26 corn to unknown destinations.
Corn inspections last week totaled 1,050,715 MT compared to 1,522,561 MT the previous week and 1,217,576 MT during the same period last year.
Inspections for Mexico fell sharply from more than 451,000 MT to a modest 111,113 MT, although Mexico’s tab last week also included 9,734 MT of white corn. Japan and South Korea had a combined 247,885 MT inspected in the Pacific Northwest.
China was again nowhere to be found on the roster of soybean inspections. Total soybean inspections fell to 473,605 MT from 544,246, still within the range of predictions although near the low end of the range of 400,000 MT.
Mexico had a combined 109,887 MT inspected on the Gulf Coast and Interior, down from the previous week, while Egypt was atop the leaderboard with 126,750 MT on the Mississippi River.
Wheat inspections were also lower at 395,240 MT, at the low end of expectations and down from 414,865 MT a week earlier. The Gulf Coast recorded 161,327 MT of wheat inspections while 146,233 MT were inspected in the Pacific Northwest, most for Asia along with 38,499 MT for Peru. Another 9,681 MT of hard red spring wheat was inspected at Duluth for shipment to Great Britain. Sorghum was the only major commodity to show a weekly increase in inspections, rising to 84,367 MT consigned to Ethiopia and South Sudan. |
USDA Flash Sales From this morning's USDA daily exports sales notice |
Hurricane Erin Hurricane Erin is now a Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds near 115 mph, located about 750 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. The storm is forecast to remain in the Atlantic Ocean but will create life-threatening rip currents across the eastern seaboard this week. Two tropical systems are trailing behind Erin. We’ve reached the busy tropical storm season. |
US – Monday's observed precipitation |
European model – US 7-day precipitation forecast |
US 15-day precipitation forecast relative to normal |
Brazil 15-day precipitation forecast relative to normal |
Argentina 15-day precipitation forecast relative to normal |
We encourage your questions, comments, and suggestions. Simply reply to this email. |
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ABOUT US
Roach Ag. Marketing is a full service advisory firm founded in Perry, Iowa back in 1978 to help farmers do a better job of marketing their crops and livestock. Learn more...
| | | CONTACT US
Roach Ag Marketing
568 E Yamato Rd
Ste 200
Boca Raton, FL 33431
Telephone: 800.622.7628
FAX: 561-994-9240
E-mail: dailygrainplan@roachag.com |
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