*This is a preliminary report. Full report will be in the Daily Grain Plan later this morning. |
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Buy Signals - Corn - Extended Day 16
- Soybeans - Day 1
- Chicago Wheat - Day 1
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Kansas City Wheat - Day 1
- Meal - Day 9
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During the past 12 months Corn had 8 Buy Signals lasting 4, 20, 11, 5, 2, 7, 1, and 12 days Soybeans had 8 Buy Signals lasting 31, 17, 11, 6, 2, 12, 1, and 4 days Chicago Wheat had 10 Buy Signals lasting 29, 4, 8, 3, 5, 6, 8, 2, 9, and 1 days KC Wheat had 9 Buy Signals lasting 28, 3, 6, 17, 5, 8, 6, 16, and 1 days Meal had 10 Buy Signals lasting 28, 8, 31, 1, 3, 2, 15, 9, 7, and 2 days
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NOTE: We are suspending the First Look edition of our newsletter during the next week, while Todd Roach enjoys a much-needed vacation. He’s traveling to the Pacific Northwest through the 4th of July weekend. Our normal newsletter schedule will resume Monday July 7. Buy Signals expanded overnight Big USDA reports on Monday
It has been a negative week as selling pressure has dominated the markets. The spec funds have put their foot on the gas this week, pressuring prices lower. All our crop markets have fallen to new recent lows this week. In the case of corn, it has fallen to life of contract lows this week. Our system now has Buy Signals for every market except Minneapolis Wheat, and it is just barely outside of Buy Signal territory this morning. Spring wheat will join the rest in Buy Signal if prices don’t stage a strong rebound today.
The positive news is that prices are in the green early this morning as we write. Perhaps all the negative sentiment has been injected into the markets ahead of Monday’s annual Acreage and quarterly Stocks reports. Overall, trade estimates aren’t projecting any large changes to occur on Monday, but these June 30 reports are known for their surprises.
We are hoping for positive surprises, or that all the negativity is already baked into the markets. In that case, a neutral report can help market prices increase. If traders are anticipating a negative surprise from the USDA, then a neutral report could be a small positive surprise. It would be nice to have the bottom in after Monday’s numbers are released. Whenever markets do turn higher, be ready to make sales on the next round of Sell Signals.
In the meantime, we have a nearly full round of Buy Signals today. Livestock producers and users of grains and oilseeds need to be aggressive buyers. Cover needs for the next 60-90 days. Have a great weekend!
Other
Cotton prices showed strength for a second consecutive day on Thursday, pushing the market to its highest level in a month. That moved cotton into a Sell Signal overnight. Sugar and rice both traded in the opposite direction yesterday, with rice falling to its lowest price in over a month and sugar continuing to drag along at the bottom of the chart near its recent low. Neither market is quite in a Buy Signal this morning.
Crude and heating oil are slightly higher today but generally continuing to trade sideways for the fourth day in a row. So far this week, the ceasefire between Israel and Iran has held. WTI crude traded just above $65/barrel overnight. Natural gas prices fell to their lowest level in two months yesterday, pressured by increased production and storage. With the heat dome dissipating this weekend, natural gas is now in a Buy Signal.
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Outside Markets
Equities: Stocks posted moderate gains Thursday, including a near-record high for the S&P 500. Nasdaq was also in record territory after climbing above 20,160 points. The Dow Jones finished around 400 points higher to round out the rally. Technology stocks led the way on gains by Nvidia, Alphabet and Meta. The easing of tensions in the Middle East continued to encourage the bulls, and President Trump’s press secretary hinted that the July tariff hikes weren’t set in stone.
Trump increased his vitriol against Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell with another threat to name his replacement before his term expires in 2026. The development wasn’t well received by Wall Street, which has been anticipating an interest rate reduction in September. Thursday’s downward revision of the second-quarter GDP by 0.5% along with the increase in unemployment claims raised confidence that the Fed would follow through on those predictions.
Dollar: The dollar was knocked lower Thursday after media reports indicated Trump could make his move to oust Powell or at least undercut him from within. Powell’s term as chairman runs into next year but The Wall Street Journal said the president had considered naming a replacement this fall who would presumably carry out his demands for rapid rate cuts regardless of the economic data.
Analysts said the prospect of undermining the Fed’s credibility with the currency markets caused the Dollar Index to open sharply lower on Thursday. The index slid to a 12-month low of 96.6 and remained near that level for the remainder of the day. The dollar also backtracked to 144.1 versus the yen and a multi-year low of 1.172 versus the euro.
Treasuries: Growing expectations of an interest-rate reduction as early as this summer pushed Treasury yields lower on Thursday. The 10-year yield fell below 4.24% for the first time since May while the 2-year was also moderately lower at 3.72%. President Trump’s latest threat to fire, or at least sideline, Chairman Powell appeared to be slightly less interesting to bond traders than the GDP and unemployment numbers as well as the personal consumption expenditures report on Friday.
Freddie Mac announced late Thursday the average 30-year mortgage rate fell to 6.77% this week, the lowest in about a month.
Energies: Crude continued its cautious recovery from the sharp downturn following the U.S. air raid on Iran. August WTI moved slightly higher Thursday but not much past $65, well below last week’s highs but in line with the moving average as the market returned to its pre-crisis pattern. Gasoline and diesel also regained some tentative upward momentum even after last week’s inventory reports indicated tightening overall supplies with the summer driving season in full swing.
Meanwhile, August natural gas slid to its lowest level in a month, falling to $3.40 before bouncing back by around a dime heading into the close. The Energy Information Administration Thursday reported another large storage injection for 96 billion cubic feet last week as production increased and this week’s heat wave wound down; temperatures were expected to be above normal during the first two weeks of July.
Metals: Metals were higher overall on Thursday with copper and palladium surging while gold remained virtually flat. The falling dollar and improved prospects for lower interest rates this year provided a boost for the industrial side. August gold was nearly unchanged and appeared to be consolidating around $3,340 as traders assessed Trump’s latest swipe at Chairman Powell.
Silver was also subdued, although it was able to extend its foothold above $36. July copper spiked above $5.00. Analysts said the movement of large volumes of copper to the United States to beat new U.S. tariffs had left other international storage sites with lower supplies. The sharpest gains of the day were for platinum and palladium, both of which soared to 12-month highs with a boost from the lower dollar and concerns about tightening supplies.
Livestock: Livestock remained little changed and in a quiet sideways pattern on Thursday as traders waited for the quarterly Hogs & Pigs update to be released after the close. August lean hogs sagged nearly a dollar while remaining above $110 ahead of what was predicted to be a largely neutral report on this spring’s swine numbers. The market likely also took some modest leads from this week’s Cold Storage report, which showed pork supplies relatively steady although down from last year.
At the same time, the early cutout fell below the 5-day average heading into the Fourth of July holiday. August live cattle inched up slightly above $209 while August feeder cattle gained about a dollar to above $303.
Meanwhile, the threat of the New World screwworm crossing the border prompted Texas to form its own interagency task force to prepare for its possible arrival. Gov. Jim Abbott said this week the state’s Animal Health Commission and Parks and Wildlife Department will launch a joint effort to manage the state’s response to an outbreak and coordinate with federal agencies and the livestock industry on public outreach and mitigation efforts.
Cattle producers in Iowa are on alert for the Asian longhorned ticks, which have resulted in two confirmed cases of the blood disease Theileriosis. Live Cattle: The week’s slaughter stood at 452,000 as of Thursday, not far above 451,000 a week ago but below last year’s tally of 474,819. The afternoon choice cutout was mostly steady at $395 and more than $15 above select on 91 loads. Cash prices remained around $230 on light activity.
Feeder Cattle: Corn fell to $4.10 Wednesday and soybean meal fell to a 12-month low of $275. Nebraska and South Dakota received some welcome rainfall on its rangeland Wednesday and near-normal temperatures are predicted for much of the Plains next week. The El Reno auction reported steer prices steady to a few dollars higher as farmers take advantage of the weather to lay in hay supplies. Sales at Dodge City were slow on light supply and modest demand.
The CME index rose above $311 at midweek. Corn futures remained around $4.10. Missouri’s hay harvest was catching up after a stretch of rainy weather, but improved pasture conditions have limited hay demand. The feeder steers at the Woodward auction in Oklahoma were nearly all over 600 pounds and fetched prices nearly $10 over last week on moderate demand.
Lean Hogs: The late Thursday cutout was down a couple of dollars and below $120 and under the 5-day average. Hams fell $4 and rib primals were off more than $5. Cash prices were down more than $2 as well at $108. The slaughter reached 1,887,000 as of Thursday and trailed the previous week’s running total of 1,889,000. |
Markets Weekly Export Sales Export sales of corn slipped lower but remained within analyst’s expectations last week although the wheat total was below the range of predictions for the second consecutive week. Wheat sales, which switched exclusively to 2025-26 marketing year on June 1, were down some 133,000 metric tons (MT) during the week ending June 19. The previous week’s total included 184,000 MT carried over from 2024-25. China made a sizable purchase of sorghum last week and was also seen in the pork market.
The National Pork Producers Council announced this week that China had approved nearly two-dozen U.S. processing plants for pork exports to China. The association said the approvals, which resulted from recent trade talks, will open the door for exports of pork products produced after June 11. China also approved export licenses for 83 U.S. poultry plants. The USDA this week announced the sale of 110,000 metric tons (MT) of soybeans to Egypt. Mexico bought 630,000 MT of corn, including 554,400 MT for 2025-26 and 75,600 MT reserved for 2026-27. Corn: Corn sales for 2024-25 fell 18% to 741,200 MT. Colombia led the buyers with 191,000 MT while Japan and Mexico continued to stock up. Unknown destinations purchase more than 100,000 MT. Sales for 2025-26 made a solid recovery from the previous week’s slump with sales of 305,500 MT; Mexico led the buyers at 138,500 MT. |
Soybeans: Sales for 2024-25 were down 16% from the previous week but 83% over the 4-week average at 402,900 MT, which was within the wide range of projections. The Netherlands and Mexico secured more than 60,000 MT each with large contributions from unknown destinations. Sales or 2025-26 were a modest 156,200 MT. Soybean meal sales for 2024-25 were down 41% to 93,900 MT. Soybean oil sales fell noticeably to 4,000 MT for Canada and Mexico. |
Wheat: Sales for 2025-26 were below expectations at 255,200 MT, led by Japan’s 93,600 MT. Mexico picked up 83,200 MT and South Korea bought 22,500 MT. Export shipments were nearly identical to the sales total at 256,300 MT. Japan was the top destination at 80,200 MT followed by Mexico at 54,900 MT. |
Meat: Pork sales jumped, and beef sales were higher as well. Pork sales rose 82% from the previous week and were nearly double the 4-week average at 51,400 MT. The big news was the appearance of China in the market with a 4,000-MT purchase. Mexico bought 30,600 MT. Beef sales rose 20% to 14,100 MT, all of it to Asia except for 900 MT sold to Canada. Shipments were down 7% at 12,600 MT, including Canada’s 900 MT and other cargoes dispatched to Asia and Mexico. |
Source: USDA, StoneX
Others: China may be laying low for now, but they made their presence known in the sorghum market last week with a hefty purchase of sorghum. China’s net total of 70,200 MT included 68,000 MT switched from unknown destinations. Mexico also stepped up to the plate with a 27,500 MT purchase. Total 2024-25 sorghum sales, however, were down 42% at 29,700 MT.
Rice sales fell to a 2024-25 low of 3,400 MT, 93% below the 4-week average. Upland cotton sales for 2024-25 tumbled 67% from the previous week to 27,300 bales, which was 71% under the 4-week average. Another 64,700 bales were booked for 2025-26, led by Vietnam at 34,300 bales. Pima sales for 2024-25 fell noticeably but the modest total of 1,800 bales was 65% higher than the 4-week average. Hogs and Pigs Report
The U.S. hog herd was a little larger than expected at the beginning of June, but producers didn’t appear to be going out of their way to keep the increase going, according to Thursday’s Hogs & Pigs report.
The early analysis of the report found it to be mixed and maybe slightly on the bearish side.
The USDA said the June 1 herd of 71.13 million hogs and pigs was 100.3% of the total from the same period a year ago and surprised analysts who had anticipated a slight decline or no change at all.
At the same time, the number of hogs kept for breeding purposes in May was 99.5% of last year while farrowing intentions from June through August of 2.97 million sows was nearly unchanged from last year but could increase as much as 1% in the fall. The March-May pig crop was 101.3% of 2024, which matched expectations, while the key pigs-per-litter average of 11.75 was up from 11.56 a year ago.
On a state basis, the USDA said Iowa had the highest hog inventory of 24.7 million head followed by Minnesota with 9.30 million head and North Carolina with 7.80 million. |
US Drought Monitor
Drought was becoming less of a threat in the Midwest and Plains last week, but the situation deteriorated in the Pacific Northwest.
The U.S. Drought Monitor released Thursday showed widespread drought and abnormal dryness covering the entire region and much of Montana during the week ending June 24.
Soil moisture levels were low in Montana and Idaho where wheat crops were limping toward harvest and farmers were becoming more dependent on irrigation water.
“In these areas, short-term precipitation deficits are growing, streamflow is lower in spots, vegetation is struggling, and soil moisture deficits are developing,” the Monitor said.
Drought was nearly pushed out of the Midwest east of the Mississippi River while continuing problem areas in Nebraska, Kansas and South Dakota showed some modest improvements. Warning temperatures, however, caused some degradation in areas where the rains had bypassed. Those regions, however, have another chance at some meaningful precipitation before the end of the month and an active storm track should keep the heat at bearable levels.
“In Nebraska and Kansas, scattered heavy rains fell in parts of both states, leading to localized improvements to ongoing drought and abnormal dryness,” the report said. “In some areas that missed the heavier rains this week, temperatures ranging from 4-8 degrees hotter than normal led to degrading conditions, as streamflow and soil moisture levels dropped.”
Showers passed through the northern Plains on Thursday with a warming trend close behind, although forecasters continued to see no signs of long-lasting heatwaves that could wreak havoc on crops and rangelands. “We’re actually favoring a little cooler pattern in July,” meteorologist Joe Woznicki from Commodity Weather Group told Roach Ag earlier this week.
Meanwhile, the Climate Prediction Center’s (CPC) will update its ENSO forecast on July 10, but researchers say conditions remain in place for the current ENSO-neutral pattern to continue through the summer and likely through the end of the year with a 41% chance of another La Niña forming early next year. “Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific reflected ENSO-neutral,” the CPC said in its weekly ENSO status report. “The forecast team also continuously favors ENSO-neutral through early 2026, with smaller chances that La Niña could form during winter 2025-26.” Current map |
Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, NOAA, USDA |
Weather
US – Thursday’s observed precipitation |
Source: World Ag Weather US daily forecast map |
Source: NOAA
NWS – US 7-day QPF |
Source: NWS, NOAA European model – US 7-day precipitation forecast |
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ABOUT US
Roach Ag has been dedicated to helping farmers make better cash grain sales for over 20 years. Our Daily Grain Plan and Sell Signals have become part of the grain marketing strategy on thousands of farms across the country. Learn more...
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Roach Ag Marketing
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Boca Raton, FL 33431
Telephone: 800.622.7628
FAX: 561-994-9240
E-mail: dailygrainplan@roachag.com |
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