↓ Jul '25 | 4.33 1/4 | -1/4
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↓ Dec'25 | 4.37 1/4 | -3/4
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↑ Jul'25 | 10.59 3/4 | +3 3/4
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↑ Nov'25 | 10.32 1/2 | +1 3/4
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↓ Jul' 25 | 5.37 1/2 | -4 1/2
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↓ Sep'25 | 5.51 1/2 | -5 1/2
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Night Trade as of 7:00 am CST. |
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Sell Signals - Minneapolis Wheat – Ended Day 7
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Kansas City Wheat – Ended Day 1
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During the past 12 months - Corn had 8 Buy Signals lasting 4, 20, 11, 5, 2, 7, 1, and 12 days.
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Corn Buy Signal remains active Soybeans holding at 20-day support Corn prices have been pressured to new lows by the combined impact of improved US condition ratings, favorable weather conditions, safrinha corn being harvested in Brazil, and spec fund selling. This is all in the light of an expected 1.8-billion-bushel carryout for next year.
US corn was 97% planted, 87% emerged and 71% of the crop was rated good to excellent. That was a 1-point improvement from last week’s condition rating. Most of the Corn Belt states are nearing completion of planting on time. Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Kentucky trail average planting pace by a few percentage points. With few current weather worries in the next couple weeks, it is difficult to craft a bullish story right now for corn.
The slide in corn prices yesterday pulled the market firmly back into a 2-Box Buy Signal. With continued spec fund selling, it may intensify in to a 3-Box Signal soon. On this round of Buy Signals, livestock producers and end users should make purchases to cover needs for the next 30-60 days. This could also be a good point to take re-ownership of corn sold on recent Sell Signals. Call us if you’d like to discuss this strategy with a Roach Ag Broker.
Soybean prices continue to sit on the support of the green line 20-day moving average, demonstrating more strength than the corn market. Anticipation of a trade deal between the US and China, and EPA biofuel guidance is providing much of this support. US soybeans were 90% planted, 75% emerged, and 68% of the crop was rated good to excellent, up a point from last week.
Monday's Export Inspections Report showed strong corn and soybean exports for the week ending June 5, despite the fact that none of the shipments were headed for China. This makes the export inspection totals all the more impressive for this time of year. Mexico stepped in and took the largest volumes of both corn and soybeans. |
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Wheat prices collapsed
Sell Signals ended
Favorable weather conditions and improved US crop ratings also helped pull wheat prices lower yesterday and overnight. The decline ended both the Minneapolis and KC Wheat Sell Signals overnight. Wheat has been unable to sustain any serious upward momentum since prices peaked in February. It is difficult to overcome the weight of the spec funds holding record short positions across the three markets.
US winter wheat was 4% harvested as of Sunday. The unharvested crop was 88% headed and 54% was rated good to excellent, a 2-point improvement from the previous week. Spring wheat was 82% emerged and 53% was rated good to excellent, up 3-points from the previous week. Montana continues to lag the rest of the spring wheat states, as their good to excellent rating declined from 33% to 25%. Meanwhile, the Dakotas and Minnesota saw rating improvements this week.
Rice Sell Signal
Other
Rice prices held at recent highs yesterday before slipping a bit overnight. Though rice is still firmly holding onto a Sell Signal again today. Cotton prices pushed into uptrend territory yesterday and inched higher again overnight. Sugar prices rebounded higher on Monday and are positive again today. The sugar Buy Signal will end soon if prices continue higher today.
Energy prices final broke out of their sideways trend to the high side. WTI crude traded back above $65/barrel for the first time in two months on optimism that the US and China will work out a trade deal. Crude and heating oil are in Sell Signal territory today, while natural gas prices are lagging back near the 20-day average.
South American Crop Progress
The recent cold temperatures and frost in southern Brazil caused only minimal damage according to our good friend Dr. Michael Cordonnier. Considering this, he increased his Brazilian corn production estimate by 1 million tons this week, bumping it up to 130 million tons. The chilly weather was helped reduce the spread of leafhoppers in Argentina. Safrinha corn was 3% harvested in the two key states of Mato Grosso and Parana as of late last week. The Mato Grosso harvest is slow, trailing 10% harvested at this point last year, and an 8% average pace. Soybeans were 89% harvested in Argentina as of late last week. Yields continue to exceed expectations, particularly in the southern core region, according to Dr. Cordonnier. |
Outside Markets
Equities: Stocks were little changed on Monday as traders waited for word from London on the trade talks between the United States and China; however, there was no word on any breakthroughs or breakdowns, which left the equities market adrift. The May consumer price index (CPI) will provide a fresh take on inflation on Wednesday.
Dollar: The Dollar Index rallied early Monday before fading and retreating below 99.0 late in the day. The dollar fell to around 1.143 against the euro with traders focused more on predicting the likely near-term future of the European Central Bank’s next step after it trimmed rates last week the lowest level since 2022. The yen also rallied, reaching 144.6 after Japan reported its economy contracted less than expected in Q1.
Treasuries: Treasury yields were generally lower on Monday with the CPI and PPI looming as a final look at inflation ahead of next week’s Fed meeting. The 10-year slipped off last week’s highs above 4.50% to a little below 4.48% while the 2-year drifted below 4.00%. The 30-year was lower as well at 4.95%. The New York Fed’s monthly Consumer Expectations survey produced an anticipated 3.2% inflation rate for the year, down 0.4% from April but still above the 2.0% target.
Energies: The crude market remained cautiously optimistic that a trade deal between the United States and China would provide a boost for global oil demand. July crude rose nearly a dollar Monday and finished slightly above $65 for the first time in more than two months. The weaker dollar also encouraged buyers to pull the trigger. The Baker-Hughes rig count was down by nine rigs Monday, indicating U.S. oil-and-gas producers may be reducing production as prices remain soft.
Metals: August gold nudged past initial resistance and above $3,350 after topping $3,400 last week. China’s central bank said its gold reserves rose for the seventh consecutive month with the addition of a couple of tons to its reserves. July silver remained on a hot streak as it climbed above $37 to a new 12-month high.
July copper rose above $4.90 on hopes of a breakthrough in the U.S. trade talks with China and after a major mine in Chile was shut down for about a month for unplanned maintenance. July platinum also reached a 12-month high of nearly $1,230 on tightening supply.
Livestock: Livestock futures posted overall modest increases on Monday but remained at 12-month highs. Analysts noted a lack of serious profit-taking in the cattle market along with reports that Australia could strike a trade deal with the United States that would include additional beef purchases. Monday was the first notice day for June live cattle, which rose to $227 while most-active finished above $216 but also broke past resistance earlier in the day and hit a 12-month high of $220.
August feeder cattle also closed slightly under the new 12-month high of nearly $312. Some chart watchers noted Monday the market appeared overbought and relative strength was flagging. The hog market remained firm and settled not far below the new 12-month high of $107.650, well above support levels above $103.
The managed-money funds added to their collection of livestock futures last week, particularly in the hog market where futures length grew 9,456 contracts along with another 3,213 in shorts. Live cattle longs increased by 2,739 longs and 1,652 shorts. Feeder cattle length increased by 1,300 while trimming a couple of hundred shorts from the books and remains at record high levels. China said Monday its meat imports last month were unchanged from April at 513,000 metric tons (MT), although that was down 7.9% from a year ago. Imports for the first five months of 2025 were 39% lower than the same period in 2024.
Live Cattle: The choice and select cutouts were a couple of dollars higher Monday on 90 loads and separated by $8.32. The boxed beef index hovered above $364 at the end of last week. The cash market was quiet with prices around $236 following an active few days late last week. Monday’s slaughter of 115,000 matched the total from the previous Monday.
Feeder Cattle: The Oklahoma auctions were active despite recent rainfall slowing down transportation of livestock, which pushed prices $5-$15 higher. The Joplin auction saw prices more than $5 higher with very good demand and moderate supply. Prices slumped in New Mexico where demand was moderate, and the feeder supply was mainly under 600 pounds. Lean Hogs: The cash price nationwide rose $2.67 to $103.22 but the averages in the Western Corn Belt and Iowa/Minnesota were above $104. The cutout fell to nearly $110 but remained a couple of dollars over the 5-day average.
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US Crop Progress The rapid pace of the planting season showed signs of slowing in the homestretch last week as rain continued, although timely showers also improved the quality of the fledgling corn and soybeans. Crop conditions were slightly higher, and development accelerated at the same time the USDA Crop Progress report for the week ending June 8 showed loose ends to planting that weren’t quite tied up.
Corn planting advanced only 3 percentage points to 97%, but the rapid start had planting in line with the 5-year average and still ahead of last year’s 94% completion rate. Iowa, Illinois and the other major producing states were crossing the finish line with Pennsylvania bringing up the rear at 88%. Corn quality continued to impress with the crop 87% emerged and the nationwide good-to-excellent ratings increasing to 71% from 69% the prior week. Iowa’s good-to-excellent ratings were an impressive 85% good to excellent with 13% in fair condition and only 2% poor.
Soybean planting increased to 90% from 84% the week before while emergence increased to 75%, compared to the 5-year average of 72%. The good-to-excellent ratings increased by 1 percentage point to 68% compared to 72% in 2024. Crop quality was around 80% good to excellent in Iowa and Louisiana. The condition of the winter wheat crop improved slightly as well as harvesting began in some locations. The good-to-excellent ratings were a couple of points higher at 54% good to excellent thanks to late-spring rains that slowed the initial harvest. The harvest in Texas, however, improved to 40%. Overview -
Corn 97% planted. Last week 93%. Five-year avg 97%
- Corn 87% emerged. Last week 78%. Avg 87%
- Corn 71% good to excellent. Last week 69%. Avg 70%
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Soybeans 90% planted. Last week 84%. Avg 88%
- Soybeans 75% emerged. Last week 63%. Avg 72%
- Soybeans 68% good to excellent. Last week 67%. Avg 67%
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Winter wheat 88% headed. Last week 83%. Avg 86%
- Winter wheat 4% harvested. Last week 3%. Avg 7%
- Winter wheat 54% good to excellent. Last week 52%. Avg 43%
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Winter wheat 16% poor to very poor. Last week 18%
- Spring wheat 82% emerged. Last week 73%. Avg 81%
- Spring wheat 53% good to excellent. Last week 50%. Avg 61%
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Cotton 76% planted. Last week 66%. Avg 80%
- Cotton squaring 12%. Last week 8%. Avg 12%
- Cotton 49% good to excellent. Last week 49%
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Rice 93% emerged. Last week 88%. Avg 91%
- Rice 77% good to excellent. Last week 75%
Corn |
Export Inspections Another solid week for corn inspections and a better-than-expected soybean total offset a slump in wheat inspections. Export inspections were mixed during the week ending June 5 with the USDA reporting a mostly steady volume for corn while soybean inspections increased and wheat fell below analyst projections. There were no sales announcements from the USDA on Monday, but the head of the department’s Foreign Agricultural Service landed in Peru on Monday at the head of a 50-member mission to drum up new export markets for U.S. crops and agricultural products.
Corn carried the heaviest inspection load for the week at 1,656,562 metric tons (MT), a modest increase from 1,641,722 MT the previous week and above the 1,340,755 MT inspected a year ago. Inspections for the marketing year passed the 50,000,000 MT pole last week and remain well ahead of last year’s 39,134,232 MT running total.
Inspections on the Gulf Coast totaled 891,272 MT compared to 468,988 MT in the Pacific Northwest and 213,806 MT at Interior points. Nearly 404,000 MT was inspected for Mexico in the Interior and Gulf while Taiwan and South Korea accounted for the volumes in the Pacific Northwest. Soybean inspections posted a solid gain and beat expectations at 547,040 MT compared to 301,459 MT the prior week. Inspections for the year remined narrowly ahead of last year at 45,188,245 MT. China was not among last week’s bean inspections, but more than 132,000 MT was inspected on the Gulf Coast for shipment to Algeria and Egypt. Inspections in the Pacific Northwest totaled only 24 MT for Taiwan; Taiwan had 2,105 MT inspected in the South Atlantic, which also saw inspections for multiple destinations in Asia.
Wheat inspections last week fell more than expected to 290,957 MT from 553,409 MT the previous week. Nearly 110,000 MT was inspected on the Gulf Coast and 103,297 MT in the Pacific Northwest. The largest volume was 65,365 MT inspected in the Interior for shipment to Mexico; another 10,877 MT was inspected for Mexico at Chicago. |
Thursday’s USDA Report Estimates |
USDA Flash Sales From this morning's USDA daily exports sales notice |
US – Monday's observed precipitation |
European model – US 7-day precipitation forecast |
US 15-day precipitation forecast relative to normal |
Brazil 15-day precipitation forecast relative to normal |
Argentina 15-day precipitation forecast relative to normal |
We encourage your questions, comments, and suggestions. Simply reply to this email. |
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ABOUT US
Roach Ag. Marketing is a full service advisory firm founded in Perry, Iowa back in 1978 to help farmers do a better job of marketing their crops and livestock. Learn more...
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Roach Ag Marketing
568 E Yamato Rd
Ste 200
Boca Raton, FL 33431
Telephone: 800.622.7628
FAX: 561-994-9240
E-mail: dailygrainplan@roachag.com |
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